Explainer · Economy
The Grow Zambia Agenda: What It Is and What It Means for Your Pay
The Government's plan for 2026 to 2031, its eight targets, and how the 2027 budget pays for it: what changes for your pay, your prices and your business.
By lchihanaUpdated 8 min read
The Grow Zambia Agenda aims to double the size of the economy by 2031 by producing more maize, copper, electricity and other goods, and by bringing in more tourists. The 2027 budget is built around it. For most employees the payslip does not change. The one PAYE change is a new 39.5% band on income above K37,000 a month from 1 January 2027.
- The aim: double the size of the economy by 2031
- 2×
- The aim: double the size of the economy by 2031
- The 2027 budget, built around the agenda
- K284.8bn
- The 2027 budget, built around the agenda
- Growth target for 2027
- 4.9%
- Growth target for 2027
- New PAYE rate on income above K37,000 a month
- 39.5%
- New PAYE rate on income above K37,000 a month
01
What the agenda is
President Hakainde Hichilema set out the Grow Zambia Agenda in his inauguration speech on 1 September 2026, at the start of his second term. It covers the five years to 2031.
The first term was spent stabilising the economy after the 2020 debt default: restructuring the debt, bringing down the deficit and getting inflation under control. The agenda is the next step, from stabilisation to growth. The 2027 budget speech names the main priority as doubling the size of the economy through more production, investment, value addition and exports.
Some reports of the inauguration quoted the President talking about tripling the economy. What he said in the speech is that the agenda will “more than double the size of our economy”. The budget and his October address to Parliament use doubling too, and that is the figure the Government's plans now work to.
1 Sep 2026
Agenda set out
The President's inauguration, at the start of his second term.
9 Oct 2026
IMF agreement
Staff-level deal on about US$1.47 billion over three years.
6 Nov 2026
2027 budget
K284.8 billion, built around the agenda.
1 Jan 2027
Tax changes apply
The new PAYE band and VAT at 16.5%.
2031
Target year
The end of the term, and the date for all eight targets.
02
The eight targets
The agenda is usually quoted as a string of numbers. Each number is a production target for 2031, and five of the eight are farming and livestock.
The targets for 2031
10
Maize
10 million tonnes
10
Power
10,000 MW of electricity
5
Tourists
5 million arrivals a year
3
Copper
3 million tonnes a year
3
Soya beans
3 million tonnes
1
Wheat
1 million tonnes
1
Sugar
1 million tonnes
1
Beef
US$1 billion in exports a year
Some of the starting points show how far there is to go. Copper output was about 890,000 tonnes in 2025 and is projected at 930,000 tonnes in 2026, so the target means more than tripling it. Installed power is 4,722 MW, up from 3,318 MW five years ago, and most of it is hydro.
The budget speech goes through the targets one sector at a time, with what the Government plans to do for each.
Farming and livestock
5 of the 8 targets10
3
Soya beans · 3 million tonnes by 2031
No published starting figure yet
1
Wheat · 1 million tonnes by 2031
No published starting figure yet
1
Sugar · 1 million tonnes by 2031
No published starting figure yet
1
Beef · US$1 billion in exports a year by 2031
No published starting figure yet
The plan
- Farm blocks along the TAZARA and Lobito railway corridors, run by a new farm block development agency.
- At least 500,000 hectares under irrigation, and six mechanisation centres in every district, by 2031.
- The Farmer Input Support Programme starts moving to a loan scheme in 2027.
- For beef: vaccination, disease-free compartments, cold storage and abattoirs, with K100 million in the 2027 budget.
Mining
1 of the 8 targets3
Copper · 3 million tonnes a year by 203131%
930,000 tonnes · 2026 projection, a record
The plan
- Expansion at First Quantum, Barrick Lumwana, Konkola and Mopani.
- Old mines such as Kalengwa and Luanshya brought back, and new mines at Kitumba and KoBold.
Power
1 of the 8 targets10
Electricity · 10,000 MW installed by 203147%
4,722 MW · installed, up from 3,318 MW five years ago
The plan
- More than 1,400 MW added to the grid in 2027, all of it from sources other than hydro.
- New transmission lines to Tanzania, Malawi and the DRC.
Tourism
1 of the 8 targets5
Tourists · 5 million international arrivals a year by 203146%
2.3 million arrivals · 2025
The plan
- Bidding to host conferences and exhibitions, and packaging visits to several sites.
- Upgrading entry points, access roads and airports, and marketing Zambia as a destination.
03
How the 2027 budget carries it
The Minister of Finance and National Planning, Dr Situmbeko Musokotwane, presented the 2027 budget on 6 November 2026. It is the largest budget yet, and its theme puts the agenda first:
Grow Zambia: From Stabilisation to Unlocking Opportunities, Creating Jobs and Improving Livelihoods for All
- Domestic revenueK233.7bn
- BorrowingK41.9bn
- GrantsK9.2bn
K22.7bn
Agriculture, fisheries and livestock
Includes K9.1 billion for the Farmer Input Support Programme and K100 million for disease-free compartments for beef exports.
6% to 8%
Inflation target
Inflation held within the medium-term band, with reserves above four months of import cover.
3%
Deficit ceiling, as a share of GDP
Down from 5.9% in 2026. It limits how much of the agenda the Government can fund itself.
K10.8bn
Expected from new tax measures
VAT, the mobile money levy, the new PAYE band, company tax and excise changes, from 1 January 2027.
On power, the speech says more than 1,400 MW will be added to the grid in 2027. None of it is hydro, so it should leave supply less exposed to drought.
04
What changes on your payslip
Very little, for most people. The budget adds one PAYE band: income above K37,000 a month is taxed at 39.5% instead of 37%. Only the part above K37,000 pays the higher rate, so someone earning K50,000 a month pays K325 more.
Below K37,000 nothing moves. The first K5,100 a month stays tax free, the 20%, 30% and 37% bands are unchanged, and NAPSA and NHIMA rates stay where they are. Pay for November and December 2026 is worked on the 2026 bands, and the salary calculator moves to the 2027 bands on 1 January.
PAYE a month on the 2026 bands and on the 2027 bands, for the same gross salary. NAPSA and NHIMA are not part of the budget and are left out. Work out your own on the calculator.
| Gross a month (K) | PAYE 2026 | PAYE 2027 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| K 5,000.005,000 | K 0.000 | K 0.000 | No change0 |
| K 10,000.0010,000 | K 1,326.001,326 | K 1,326.001,326 | No change0 |
| K 25,000.0025,000 | K 6,876.006,876 | K 6,876.006,876 | No change0 |
| K 37,000.0037,000 | K 11,316.0011,316 | K 11,316.0011,316 | No change0 |
| K 40,000.0040,000 | K 12,426.0012,426 | K 12,501.0012,501 | +K 75.0075 |
| K 50,000.0050,000 | K 16,126.0016,126 | K 16,451.0016,451 | +K 325.00325 |
| K 100,000.00100,000 | K 34,626.0034,626 | K 36,201.0036,201 | +K 1,575.001,575 |
Change is a month. A plus is more tax, so less take-home pay.
Where most people will feel the budget is in prices, not pay.
16%16.5%
Standard VAT rate
K4K8
Mobile money levy on K1,000 to K3,000
NoneK1 a kg
Excise duty on sugar
Every change is on the 2027 budget page.
05
What it means for employers
The agenda expects new jobs to come from farming, mining, energy and tourism. Every person taken onto a formal payroll brings the same duties: registering the employee, deducting PAYE, NAPSA and NHIMA, paying the employer's share, and filing on time. The PAYE, NAPSA and NHIMA guides set out each one.
Businesses in the sectors the agenda wants to grow should also plan for two tax changes in the same budget.
Company tax below 30% rises by 5 points
Fertiliser producers, exporters of non-traditional products and companies adding value to copper cathode go to 20% or 25%.
Staff housing and cars cost more
The amount the employer cannot deduct for providing a car goes up by 10%. Both are the employer's tax, not the employee's PAYE.
06
Can the targets be met?
The targets are the Government's goals, not forecasts. The first question is the arithmetic. To double in five years, an economy has to grow by about 15% a year after inflation. The 2027 budget targets 4.9%, and the Government's plan for 2027 to 2029 averages about 7%. At 7% a year an economy doubles in about ten years, not five.
Years for the economy to double
At a steady rate of growth after inflation.
| Growth a year | Years to double |
|---|---|
| 4.9% (2027 budget target) | 14.5 |
| 7% (Plan average, 2027 to 2029) | 10.2 |
| 14.9% (Needed to double by 2031) | 5.0 |
The gap would have to be closed by much faster growth later in the term, mostly from mining and power. Three more questions decide whether that can happen.
0.45%
Copper growth, first half of 2026
01Power comes first
Copper output grew by less than 1% in the first half of 2026, and ZIPAR, the policy research institute, points to the power shortage as the main reason. The President has said about 8,000 MW of reliable power is needed to produce 3 million tonnes of copper (Zambian Economist).
3%
Deficit ceiling for 2027, as a share of GDP
02Who pays for it
With the deficit held to 3% of GDP, the Government has little room to fund the targets itself. The IMF facility agreed in October still needs its Board's approval. Most of the investment has to come from private and concessional money, and the budget speech says as much: the Government is to be “a catalyst for investment rather than the sole provider of development finance”.
82%
Of the budget paid from domestic revenue
03What kind of jobs
Opposition parties and civil society ask whether the new work will be formal jobs with a payslip, NAPSA and NHIMA, or more informal work (Zambian Economist). Formal jobs widen the tax base, and the budget counts on domestic revenue for 82% of its spending.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Grow Zambia Agenda?
The Grow Zambia Agenda is the Government's economic programme for 2026 to 2031, set out by President Hakainde Hichilema at the start of his second term in September 2026. Its aim is to double the size of the economy by producing more, attracting investment, adding value locally and exporting more. The 2027 national budget is built around it.
What does 10-10-5-3-3-1-1-1 stand for?
The eight targets of the Grow Zambia Agenda for 2031: 10 million tonnes of maize, 10,000 megawatts of electricity, 5 million tourist arrivals a year, 3 million tonnes of copper, 3 million tonnes of soya beans, 1 million tonnes of wheat, 1 million tonnes of sugar, and US$1 billion a year in beef exports.
Does the Grow Zambia Agenda change PAYE?
The 2027 budget, which carries the agenda, adds one PAYE band: income above K37,000 a month is taxed at 39.5% instead of 37% from 1 January 2027. The K5,100 tax-free threshold and the other bands do not change, so anyone earning K37,000 a month or less pays the same PAYE as in 2026.
When do the 2027 budget changes take effect?
From 1 January 2027, subject to Parliament passing them. Pay for November and December 2026 is worked on the 2026 bands.
Sources
- 2027 Budget Address by Dr Situmbeko Musokotwane, Minister of Finance and National Planning, 6 November 2026, National Assembly of Zambia
- Inauguration speech by President Hakainde Hichilema, 1 September 2026, tralac
- Zambia targets 7% average growth as budget plan shifts focus to expansion, Zambia Monitor
- Zambia proposes record K284.8 billion 2027 budget, as focus turns to growth, Zambia Monitor
- Agric gets K22.7bn in 2027 budget, as Zambia targets higher production, exports, Zambia Monitor
- Zambia targets 4.9% growth as Government sets 2027 economic goals, Pan African Visions
- Zambia sees steady growth and smaller budget deficit next year, CNBC Africa
- President HH unveils Grow Zambia Agenda development programme, Open Zambia
- Grow Zambia Agenda: the eight numbers behind the plan to double Zambia's economy, Zambian Economist
Figures are from the 2027 budget speech of 6 November 2026, the President's inauguration speech, and reporting of both. Starting points are the latest published figures. This is general information, not financial or tax advice.